david deutsch brexit

Our two slogans were therefore ‘Europe yes, euro no’ and ‘Keep the pound, keep control’.). DD suggests that the UK’s FPTP electoral system accounts for why the UK has enjoyed far more, and far more sustained, political stability than most other European countries, who tend to use PR: ‘Britain is famous for political stability over decades and centuries’. I’m voting Leave… [E]rror correction is the basic issue, and I can’t foresee the EU improving much in this respect… [P]reserving the institutions of error correction is more important than any policy… Whether errors can be corrected without violence is not a “concern” but a condition for successfully addressing concerns.’. (A big speech from Gove was turned by the Financial Times – yes, the FT that bemoaned the ‘low quality debate’ – into a story about whether he had ‘gaffed’ by mentioning Albania, though in plastering ‘Albania’ all over the place the FT accidentally helped us.) These stories are often very powerful. While IN could send out name after name to deliver their message, we could depend on very few names who would deliver our message. Westminster has let the whole country down for many years. For the likes of Osborne it is ‘irrational’ to reject the views of people like him.

Many pundits who described themselves as ‘modernisers’ wrote columns over the years arguing that immigration was an issue because Cameron was making foolish promises about it and the media therefore paid more attention to it. reviews recent books on Maoism, many versions of which continue to underpin Chinese politics to this day. Last year, Britain passed legislation to reduce its carbon emissions to net zero by 2050. People naturally concluded – these guys in London don’t grasp the seriousness of the problems, they haven’t a clue what to do, and are treating us like idiots. the lack of anything resembling a well-organised mass movement. Blair’s campaign against us in the North East did the same. Many will reply, ‘Oblonsky is a dilettante, not a serious character, you can’t compare him with people like Robert Peston’. If we win a majority, we will do all we can to improve this country — and especially for those who don’t have lots of money, who are surrounded by bad choices of school, who can’t afford a private doctor if their family is sick.

I knew I could trust him. This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Some basic numbers that summarise important elements.

Most of the powerful people in Westminster supported Remain. They worked like dogs week in week out for little money often treated with appalling rudeness by people calling from their beach loungers (Boris, Gisela and Gove were three notable exceptions and all three were liked by junior staff partly because of their good, therefore rare, manners). 4. Corbyn, Sturgeon and co had a majority that forced the government to ask for another delay and accept any conditions Brussels demanded. David Deutsch is a clever man: physics professor at Oxford who pioneered quantum computing. Cameron and Osborne have never won even 40%. I am not aware of a single MP or political journalist who understands the Single Market – its history, its nature, its dynamics, its legal system, the complex interactions between law, economics, business, history and so on. (Two rare heroes who put up a lot of their own money and supported the team were Peter Cruddas and Stuart Wheeler.) Photograph by Mark Henley / Panos Pictures / Redux. Registration is free and requires only your email address. And there’ll be another Scottish referendum.

After the video there’s what I hope is a fairly accurate transcript of the relevant exchange: JB: Isn’t it the case that economic integration has fostered this unprecedented period of peace and stability in Europe, and as important as error correction might be, isn’t the prevention of war more important than that?

In this he sees himself as a follower of Karl Popper, a Viennese philosopher of science famous for (among other things) claiming that a theory is only truly scientific if it is falsifiable. The opposite was true. If something is genuinely very good / unusual and you have avoided isolating yourself in an echo chamber that insulates you from opinions very different to your own then someone reliable will send it to you. This is not a claim that ‘we won because of the Vote Leave campaign’. When I next saw him in the summer, I was amazed at how his tune had changed, his obsession with the debates, and his pessimism. Apologies for the length but I didn’t have time to make it shorter.
Extreme. Osborne is taking this delusion so far he is writing a book titled ludicrously ‘The age of unreason’. Change ), You are commenting using your Google account.

There is a natural set of categories and I will post links to blogs below: On data science, digital marketing, canvassing software made available for download. Password Without Boris, Farage would have been a much more prominent face on TV during the crucial final weeks, probably the most prominent face.

Either keep out of politics, refuse to help, and then feel miserable about the tragicomic campaign, or re-engage with people I did not want to work with, feel miserable about the tragicomic campaign, and in almost every way make my life worse. The first draft of history was written in the days and weeks after the 23 June and the second draft has appeared over the past few weeks in the form of a handful of books. Since the referendum, in 2016, Brexiteers have sought to characterize leaving the E.U. But a larger, subtler process of divergence will have already begun. Or indeed whether he’s claiming that his error correction principle allows him to drag ‘is’ and ‘ought’ together: the ‘is’ of German defeat proving that Nazism should never have happened? In March, 2019, when Brexit was first supposed to have taken place, Boris Johnson had resigned from the government. Meanwhile he and Sturgeon will be banging up your taxes and the NHS will have his four-day week plus unlimited immigration from the whole world not just Europe. Questions are vague, often meaningless, posed by interviewers who rarely have more than a thin bluffer’s understanding of any policy issue and the same is usually true of those answering; the more famous the interviewer, the less likely it is they know anything about, say, education policy and like David Cameron they are bluffing. Their renegotiation was flawed from the start and badly undermined their central message. (NB. They therefore tried to push the theme that actually MPs are great, ‘they are in it for good reasons’ and so on. The implication is that the change in the elected government is typically in the same direction as the shift of opinion in the electorate. There are strong psychological pressures that lead people to create post facto stories that seem to add up to ‘I always said X and X happened.’ Even if people do not think this at the start they rapidly construct psychologically appealing stories that overwrite memories.

Corbyn’s message was – there should be not just more immigration but no limits on it. I have avoided it, and interviews, for a few reasons (though I had to write one blog to explain that with the formal closing of VL we had made the first online canvassing software that really works in the UK freely available HERE). I wanted them to announce a veto. But it has many bad effects too.

High prestige pundits and editors yield great power over the stories told (and have far more power over politicians like Cameron, unfortunately, than they realise) but the field is not based on real expertise. I suspect that in general big mistakes cause defeat much more often than excellent moves cause victory. The next step is using this process to push people towards admitting conditional errors like ‘if I am proved wrong about X by date Y then I will admit I was wrong to claim Z’.

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Many regarded Vote Leave as ‘the real enemy’.

It is more likely that I am wrong than 99% of people who work in this field professionally. Brexit is often characterized as a populist rebellion against the forces of globalization, but the reality of life outside the E.U. He always wore those which happened to be in fashion. Deutsch was right, there is a need to correct errors. If we leave we can have democratic control and a system like Australia’s. If they had not blown up this would have happened.

The U.K.’s busiest airport, Heathrow, is owned by an international consortium led by a Spanish company and the Qatari government; its busiest port, Felixstowe, belongs to a Hong Kong investment firm. One of our campaign’s biggest failures was to get even SW1 to think seriously about this, never mind millions of voters. How confident can we be about these judgements?

Neither condition applies generally to politics or the political media.

By proceeding, you are agreeing to our Terms and Conditions. [272] The combined EU fishing fleets land about six million tonnes of fish per year,[273] about half of which are from UK waters.

Have an immigration policy that guarantees free movement rights even for murderers, so we cannot deport them or keep them locked up after they are released? The country supported one but without any passion outside the small fraction who had long been passionate about it. it being ‘your move’ is seen as a plus but in fact it is a minus for humans because of the probability of a significant error, while for computers this effect is absent.

Most of the ‘debate’ was moronic as political debate always is. ‘Two hands are a lot’ — we’re hiring data scientists, project managers, policy experts, assorted weirdos…, On the referendum #33: High performance government, ‘cognitive technologies’, Michael Nielsen, Bret Victor, & ‘Seeing Rooms’, On the referendum #24N: Actions have consequences, On the referendum #32: Science/productivity — a) small teams are more disruptive, b) ‘science is becoming far less efficient’. There were many tiny groups who often hated each other more than they wanted to win and were conditioned to expect failure and defeat.

conditions Brussels demanded. I wrote about the centre ground and the EU in 2014 HERE.).

Not only do the Oblonskys not know what they are talking about, neither do almost any of the supposed experts and specialists. They share a narrow set of ideas about how the world works which mistakes their own view as the only possible sensible approach. Dominic Cummings, the campaign director of Vote Leave and now Johnson’s senior adviser, often quotes David Deutsch, the celebrated physicist, who sees the nation-state as better equipped to correct itself in a complicated world than a vast, slow-moving entity like the E.U.

Most educated people are not set up to listen or change their minds about politics, however sensible they are in other fields. Continue reading →, There are those who say a second EU referendum would destroy faith in democracy. There is surely a world of difference between the EU of today and the shifting and unstable equilibrium between competing imperial powers policed by the British Royal Navy and continental armies. label: { They were subdued partly because they were genuinely sad about Cameron and partly because they did not want to be seen as dancing on his grave. Could this be at least one reason why it hasn’t been successfully invaded since 1066? But I have also learned that when you say or write something, although it has roughly zero effect on powerful/prestigious people or the immediate course of any ‘debate’, you are throwing seeds into a wind and are often happily surprised.

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